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The NBA playoffs are finally here, and with them, a fresh batch of predictions from some of Bleacher Report’s top roundball scribes.
Who will be the breakout rookie to watch? Are the Boston Celtics as vulnerable as they seem?
Can anybody (anybody?!) finally take down the Golden State Warriors?
Check out what our favorite squad has to say about your favorite squad as the postseason officially kicks off Saturday.
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Rick Bowmer/Associated Press
Shortly after all the chips fell where they did on the regular season’s final night, Utah Jazz broadcast assistant Conner Varney shared win probabilities from three games. The Minnesota Timberwolves, Sacramento Kings and Houston Rockets were all above 96 percent in the second halves of their final games. They all lost.
If one of those outcomes is different, the Jazz aren’t playing the Houston Rockets in the first round. But alas, the basketball gods have seen fit to pit Utah against probably the biggest Western Conference threat to the Golden State Warriors.
Unlucky draw aside, the Jazz should be able to put up a little better fight than they did in last season’s gentlemen’s sweep at the hands of the Rockets. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are both better. And Houston doesn’t have Trevor Ariza to badger Mitchell all series.
But Utah doesn’t have anyone to slow down Harden, one of the most prolific scorers in NBA history. Believe it or not, the absence of Dante Exum is huge there. In last year’s series, James Harden went 3-of-14 for 12 points when defended by Exum, according to NBA.com/stats. Houston scored 55 points in those 53 possessions, a comfortable drop from its regular season.
Houston in six.
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Russ can’t help himself.
Call it confidence or stubbornness, but Russell Westbrook is going to shoot the Thunder out of at least two games in their first-round series against the Portland Trail Blazers. He averaged 24 field-goal attempts per game in four meetings with Portland this season (all Thunder wins, by the way). Each contest was close in the fourth quarter, and tempers flared more than once.
Westbrook isn’t great at exercising restraint in his shot selection under normal conditions, and the recent history between these teams, plus the added intensity of a playoff environment, will make it especially hard for him to suppress his takeover instincts.
Westbrook’s shooting trended up in the second half of the season, but he still hit just 42.8 percent from the field and 29 percent from deep overall. Expect him to attack as if he were a far more efficient scorer than that—much to the detriment of his team in at least a couple of contests.
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On paper, it looks like a sure-fire sweep. The 58-win No. 2 seed Toronto Raptors carry two of the game’s best 15 players in their prime, their belts filled with playoff pedigree. In addition to 15-1 title odds, the Raptors hold the fourth-best net rating in the past 15 games (third post-All-Star). But if you’re expecting the Orlando Magic to show up, bask in the playoff glow and carry their heads into 2019-20 with a bunch of ‘atta boys,’ you haven’t been paying attention.
Thrust aside the Magic’s wild swing from seven games under .500 to 22-9 over the past two-and-a-half months and just pay close attention to the narrative head coach Steve Clifford has preached all season long:
“We’ve gotta stop with that s–t,” Clifford, April’s Coach of the Month, again said following a 116-110 loss at the hands of GSW. “You know what you either win or you lose. We’re good enough to win. There’s none of this you know ‘we played hard.’ We’re not doing that anymore.”
Three factors come into play when dissecting the Magic’s challenge.
Giant Killers: Eighteen of their losses have come against sub-.500 opponents, and they’ve taken plus-.500 squads 16 times, including these Raptors, the 76ers and the Celtics a combined seven times in addition to the Warriors, Spurs, Jazz and Bucks.
Defense: The Magic have the fifth-best defense in the NBA according to points allowed (106.6) over the course of the season and according to net rating since the All-Star break (107.0).
Momentum: The Magic are playing better basketball than all but five teams over the past 15 games (winning 11 of the past 13) with a net rating of plus-7.4.
The Raptors have the psychological advantage of owning each matchup at full strength against the Magic, and they probably host the series’ three best players (Lowry, Leonard, Siakam). But the Magic have burst aflame since seating Mo Bamba (minus-19.6 per 100), Jerian Grant (minus-9.9) and Jonathon Simmons (minus-9.2) and inserting Jarrell Martin (plus-4.8), Khem Birch (plus-2.0) and former Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams (plus-14.8).
The wild card? The Raptors’ former eighth overall pick now suiting up for Orlando, Terrence Ross. Ross has been the Magic’s largest barometer of success all season, with a plus-15.5 net rating in victories and minus-17.3 in losses. If Ross heats up, the Magic will take the Eastern Conference’s eventual champion to six games and give them all that they can handle in their four losses.
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Aaron Gash/Associated Press
Will the Philadelphia 76ers last long enough in the playoffs to run it back next year with same squad?
Am I allowed to respond with a “who the hell knows” or will doing so lead to the confiscation of my Take Badge?
On the one hand, the Sixers’ starting five is, as the #kidz say, fire. No team in the East can match the talent of the Simmons-Redick-Butler-Harris-Embiid quintet, which has bulldozed opponents to the tune of 17.6 points per 100 possessions.
On the other, that group has only shared the floor for 161 minutes over 10 games, the bench is thin and untrustworthy, Embiid’s got a balky knee—the severity of which Elton Brand and Brett Brown seemingly disagree (never mind that all the “load management” has rendered Embiid very obviously overweight and out of shape), and owner Josh Harris has stated that an early playoff exit would be “problematic.”
Maybe talent trumps all this. Maybe the Sixers storm into the Finals, and Brown’s hot seat cools down. Maybe the playoff atmosphere seduces Butler, and everyone comes back next year.
But there’s another universe where Embiid doesn’t return to 100 percent, and the Sixers first struggle with the Nets’ electric guards then fall in five to the Raptors, causing Brown to lose his job and both Butler and Harris to walk.
As is usually the case in life, the answer will likely fall between these two extremes. Will that be good enough to satisfy ownership and the free agents? My gut says Brown is given one more training camp but Butler won’t be a part of it.
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Michael Conroy/Associated Press
The Celtics, downside-up chemistry and all, are not a particularly good matchup for the Pacers.
Thaddeus Young needs to chase around Al Horford so Myles Turner can police the rim. This isn’t the same as tracking—and shutting down—2017-18 Kevin Love. Horford is all over the place and forces Young to guard against six jillion different possibilities on every touch.
Indy’s entire backcourt, meanwhile, will have to pitch in defending Kyrie Irving. Cory Joseph is more impacted than anyone. He’s the Pacers’ best option to face off versus Irving’s voodoo handles with Victor Oladipo on the sidelines.
Bojan Bogdanovic is perhaps the lone player who sees this best-of-seven set as a silver lining. Oladipo’s absence initially meant he would encounter the wrath of Marcus Smart. That’s no longer an issue. Smart isn’t expected to return from his torn left oblique before the second round.
Jaylen Brown figures to spend the most time on Bogdanovic, the Pacers’ most important scorer, at the start of the series. And Bogey has owned him this season. This comes with the usual small-sample warning, but he’s shooting almost 86 percent against Brown on the year, and Indy is averaging 1.23 points per possession whenever these two match up.
Boston will throw other bodies on Bogdanovic, most notably Gordon Hayward, Marcus Morris and Jayson Tatum. Not one of them comes close to matching Smart’s physicality. That bodes incredibly well for Bogdanovic, one of this season’s most surprising offensive standouts and the player best positioned to legitimize Indiana’s upset hopes.
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Winslow Townson/Associated Press
On paper, the Boston Celtics should probably steamroll the Victor Oladipo-less Indiana Pacers. But coach Nate McMillan’s club proved a resilient bunch without its All-Star leader, and while it scuffled down the stretch, it brings enough execution, depth and energy to keep this series close.
The problem is close contests are where Kyrie Irving thrives. His knockout punch to close Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals is on a short list of the most clutch shots we’ve seen in recent history.
For as much as Boston has seemed to struggle with sorting out its hierarchy, there’s no question Irving ranks on top—especially in late-game situations. His 159 clutch points were third-most in the Association and more than twice as many as the next-closest Celtic (Jayson Tatum, 66). Irving also paced the Shamrocks in fourth-quarter points (352) and shots (273) despite ranking just eighth in minutes (406).
Look for Irving to navigate his team through a tough, gritty series with the first round’s most clutch points and at least one game-winner to add to his extensive collection of big-time buckets.
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Both James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo are set to star in these playoffs, but Harden is the player who will be more effective.
Give me the guy who can put the ball in the bucket, a trait Harden achieves better than anyone on this planet. Scoring is always at a premium in the playoffs. Teams can figure out schemes and tendencies. Harden is the human cheat code and gets to the free-throw line more than anyone else in the league (he took 858 attempts over the season, compared to Antetokounmpo’s 686.)
Lastly, I’m going with incentive. Harden has been to the NBA finals and lost. He took these Warriors to a Game 7 and lost.
It’s the one omission among an amazing resume. He realizes that, and the best time to alter that narrative is this postseason.
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Meanwhile, the Sixers enter the postseason burdened by expectation and Embiid’s balky knee, as well as concern about three of its best five players hitting free agency this summer.
Talent, as Yaron says, may well win out anyway. But expect a kitchen-sink effort from Brooklyn for as long as this series goes—there will be D’Angelo Russell floaters and Spencer Dinwiddie heroics and zone defense, and a trillion back-screens for Joe Harris, the reigning three-point champ. All that stuff has gotten the Nets to this point. Maybe it’ll take ’em a little further still.
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Matt Slocum/Associated Press
Zhaire Smith—welcome to the NBA. These are the playoffs.
The No. 16 pick of 2018, acquired in a draft-night trade by the Philadelphia 76ers, Smith has quickly emerged as a weapon for them to use in the first round of the playoffs.
That didn’t seem possible even a month ago. Smith broke his foot in August before suffering an allergic reaction that led to significant weight loss, a series of events that hinted at a lost rookie year.
Instead, he bounced back for some G League action in March before getting the call-up and making a case to coach Brett Brown for a postseason role.
The No. 10 overall prospect on my predraft big board for 2018, Smith closed out the regular season by combining for 28 points, seven assists and three three-pointers over Philadelphia’s final two games. Even if it’s only in 10-15 minutes per contest against the Brooklyn Nets, look for Smith to reestablish his identity as an off-ball energy player, valued for his athleticism, passing, set shot-making and defensive playmaking.
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Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press
The Rockets have found their stride and are poised to make a deep run in the postseason. That’s not good news for the Utah Jazz.
Last season, Utah overachieved, besting the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round behind the breakout performance of Donovan Mitchell. But Houston took down the Jazz in the semis in five games on their way to the Western Conference Finals.
In that series, the Rockets were able to dictate the pace of the game and Utah looked sluggish in comparison. This season, Rudy Gobert is still the best rim protector in the league, so he’ll try to keep the Rockets honest inside the paint, if he doesn’t get in foul trouble.
But the Jazz, despite having the second-best defense in the Association (105.5 defensive rating), will have their work cut out for them closing out on perimeter shooters like Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker and Gerald Green because of Harden and Chris Paul’s ability to penetrate and create open shots for teammates.
Houston shoots and makes more three-point shots than any team in the NBA, so if Utah wants to deliver an encore first round playoff performance, they’ll have to put a lid on the Rockets’ deadly shooting from deep.
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As I wrote here, the Lakers should be more concerned with building a winning infrastructure and culture over attracting the next shiny-object free agent. But of all the impending free agents, Kawhi Leonard is the one who is most likely to see greener pastures with the Lakers.
He’s the one whose free-agent decision is the least tied to his team’s postseason success or failure. He’s from Southern California. His desire to play for the Lakers is part of what got him traded to Toronto in the first place.
Working in the Raptors’ favor is that they expertly took care of Leonard’s body this season. (And also, you know, the extra year and nearly $50 million more they can offer him.) In theory, working even more in their favor would be a trip to the Finals.
But if Kevin Durant left the Warriors, I’m not sure Leonard would view his chances of making the Finals as diminished with LeBron and the Lakers versus staying with the Raptors. Ask yourself this: Why would a player of Leonard’s caliber want to leave San Antonio, the most successful franchise in the NBA over the past two decades?
His track record suggests there are things that are at least as important to him as winning. And he could have them in L.A.
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Denver Nuggets head coach Mike Malone might have previewed this series with an acknowledgment that his counterpart on the San Antonio Spurs sideline has five championship rings to his one wedding band, but hardware earned in the past won’t help Gregg Popovich’s underdogs—a strange but true way to describe the Spurs—pull off a series victory. They’ll be lucky to get more than a game or two against a deep Nuggets squad that can run teams off the court with an explosive offense and buckle down to show off some underrated defensive chops whenever necessary.
Denver might gain the most notoriety for the exploits of Nikola Jokic (can we firmly consider him the greatest passing big of all time yet?) and Jamal Murray, but its hidden secret is that defensive potency. When everyone is fully engaged, it’s better than you think. The Mile High residents posted a league-best 101.9 defensive rating during fourth quarters this year. In crunch-time situations, that number dropped to an Association-pacing 95.3.
A motivated version of the Nuggets will beat the Spurs in six (at the most).
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The Los Angeles Clippers will steal Game 1 of their playoff series versus the Golden State Warriors—the reigning champs yielding home-court advantage just 48 minutes into the postseason.
Few guessed the Clippers would near the playoffs, and they may not near the star power of the Warriors, but L.A. has a deep, talented, hungry team.
The Clippers will get the victory with a defensive scheme that requires Draymond Green and DeMarcus Cousins to hit open shots. They won’t fall, and for at least a single game, Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell will provide enough scoring off the Clippers’ high-powered bench to get the road victory.
For the underdog, the opener will be the highlight of the series, as Golden State rebounds in Game 2 and makes short work of L.A. the rest of the series, closing it out in no more than six games.
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Chris Elise/Getty Images
Earlier this season, it was reported that Kevin Durant believed he would be considered the best player on the planet after earning his first finals MVP and beating LeBron James in the 2017 NBA Finals.
Two more titles and two more finals MVPs might finally give him that chance.
The Lakers have more problems and excuses than are even worth listing, but the bottom line is this: LeBron missed the playoffs, and that cracks the door open for Durant.
Durant must dominate from Game 1 against the Clippers to win No. 4 in the Finals. If he makes it known that he is the key to success and that he’s the best player on the best team, he should be considered the best player in the game.
That credit is what Durant has been searching for all along. And if he finally gets it, who knows? Maybe he’ll stay in Golden State.
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Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images
It was the perfect summer for the Toronto Raptors. After going a combined 2-12 against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers the past three postseasons, James defected to the Western Conference, and Toronto traded for their own superstar in Kawhi Leonard. Watching Pascal Siakim grow into a budding star and trading for Marc Gasol should theoretically be enough to finally reach the NBA Finals, right?
While Toronto has put together arguably the greatest collection of talent in franchise history, it’s still the second best in the East. Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks have been the NBA’s top team nearly all season and show no signs of slowing down. After falling victim to James year after year, Antetokounmpo now slides into the role of Raptor tamer following his 27.0-point, 15.3-rebound and 5.0-assist per game average against them in the regular season.
Unfortunately for the Raptors, another potential Finals run will once again fall short.
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Elise Amendola/Associated Press
I tried to find a different outcome. I really did.
“Maybe the Rockets again fluster the Warriors with switching D—and somehow knock Iguodala out of the series again!” No, probably not.
“Maybe the Thun—” No.
“Or the Nug—” Please.
“Maybe the Warriors tear each other apart on the bus ride to the arena.” Um, maybe?
As it’s been the last four years, the only team that can stop the Warriors at full strength is the Warriors. But I do think whoever emerges from the East will stress out Golden State in a way the last two Cavaliers teams could not. The Raptors have a great shot at making the Finals. I won’t even rule out the Sixers and Celtics.
It might all come down to health, luck and who gets hot at the right time. But I’m betting on the Bucks’ killer defense and the brilliance of Giannis to carry them through the East bracket. And betting that when it’s all over, the Warriors will again be bathing in Champagne.
Bonus prediction: KD will celebrate in a Bernard King throwback jersey.
from Update News Topic http://bit.ly/2UWhXnE
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