All is not well with Joe Maddon and the Chicago Cubs.LM Otero/Associated Press
Remember when there was a minor panic over a certain projection system’s calculation that the 2019 Chicago Cubs would finish last in the National League Central?
Well, perhaps the real panic should be over how that prophecy is already coming true.
The Cubs have not started 2019 out on the proverbial right foot. They have a 4-8 record that, sure enough, ties them for last place in the division.
Certainly, better things were expected from these Cubs. After all, they still largely resemble the teams that averaged 97 wins and made the postseason each year between 2015 and 2018, and which notably produced the franchise’s first World Series championship in over 100 years in 2016.
Of course, one can also take the approach that the Cubs’ early record isn’t a stake through their heart, and that better things are indeed coming. It’s a bit soon, for example, to use words like “urgency.”
As president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said Monday, according to MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian:
“That [urgency] storyline is completely over inside the clubhouse. I know, until we start winning, it’s going to be perpetuated outside, but our guys are professionals. They’re preparing hard each day. They’re showing up focused and ready to win the day. We just haven’t played well yet.”
From here, one could point out that Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system (i.e., the aforementioned projection villain) never painted the Cubs as a bad team, necessarily. Even now, it projects them to go roughly .500 the rest of the way.
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The reality of the Cubs isn’t so terrible either. Though their record is deep in the red, their even alignment of 76 runs scored and 76 runs allowed suggests they deserve better.
This points to the one positive takeaway from the Cubs’ poor start to the season: At least their offense is living up to more optimistic expectations.
In Epstein’s words, Chicago’s offense “broke somewhere along the lines” in 2018. Indeed, as Cubs hitters went from a .771 OPS and 5.1 runs per game in the first half to .705 and 4.1 in the second.
Ultimately, the team’s doom was spelled by an output of two runs in an NL Central tiebreaker opposite the Milwaukee Brewers and the NL Wild Card Game opposite the Colorado Rockies.
So far in 2019, however, the Cubs have a collective .816 OPS with an average of 6.3 runs per game. This is despite the fact that Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber have yet to settle in. They should eventually, in which case they’ll join Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Ben Zobrist and (surprisingly) Jason Heyward in driving one of the National League’s top run-scoring units.
“[The offense] is one of the things in the first week we’ve been really encouraged about,” Zobrist said, per Cam Ellis of NBC Sports Chicago. “We want to keep that up. If we do that a lot, we’re going to win a lot of games.”
However, Zobrist’s theory that more runs will eventually equal more wins will only work if Cubs pitchers can get better at preventing runs. And that’s where Chicago’s outlook gets decidedly less rosy.
Cubs pitchers own a 5.86 ERA that can’t be waved off with the help of peripheral statistics. Their 5.2 walks per nine is the worst mark in all of MLB. They’ve also surrendered 2.0 home runs per nine.
As demonstrated by their 29th-ranked fastball velocity and 21st-ranked contact rate, there’s a notable lack of power in Chicago’s starting rotation. Jon Lester (who’s currently injured) and Cole Hamels are past their peak stuff, and neither Jose Quintana nor Kyle Hendricks has ever been a power pitcher. Yu Darvish still is, but he’s failing to correct his control problems following an injury-marred 2018.
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This doesn’t mean that Chicago’s rotation is hopeless, but it’s an early sign that it’s going to need all the help it can get, whether it comes in the form of good framing, good defense and/or good relief work.
Unfortunately for them, here lie still more shortcomings.
Start with Contreras, who’s coming off a 2018 season in which Baseball Prospectus’ metrics rated him as the worst pitch framer in the majors. Then on to the defense, which is not the impenetrable net that it was back in 2016. Its efficiency at turning batted balls into outs is trending like so:
- 2016: .745 (1st in MLB)
- 2017: .715 (6th)
- 2018: .715 (6th)
- 2019: .658 (30th)
No rational person expected the 2019 Cubs bullpen to be particularly good following an offseason in which Brad Brach became its shiniest new toy. The hope was rather that Cubs relievers would at least not screw up the starters’ (hypothetical) good work. If nothing else, this would require cutting down their ugly 4.2 walks-per-nine rate from last year.
That collective bad walk habit has instead gotten worse to the tune of an NL-worst 6.3 walks per nine. Even after 17.2 straight scoreless innings, that’s helping fuel a 6.07 ERA.
The Cubs sorely need ace closer Brandon Morrow to return from elbow surgery. That likely won’t be until May, however, and he’ll then be tasked with outrunning an injury bug that rarely fails to nip him.
In the meantime, the Cubs might slap a Band-Aid on their bullpen by signing all-time great closer Craig Kimbrel. Or on their rotation by inking former Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel. Failing that, there’s always the trade market. Though the Cubs don’t have much in their farm system to deal, they might take a hint from the reality that they have more hitters than they really need.
Whatever the case, patience and optimism can’t necessarily cure what ails the Cubs. They have real problems chipping away at their contention chances. If left unchecked, they might start taking out large chunks.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
from Update News Topic http://bit.ly/2P8LiWO
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