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Kicking off a week of all-English continental finals is Chelsea vs. Arsenal in the UEFA Europa League.
At stake for both is the chance to cap the 2018-19 season by lifting a prestigious trophy, but there’s even more on the line for the Gunners, as this represents their only remaining route to Champions League football next term.
Contests between these two sides in the Premier League this term yielded a victory for each. Chelsea triumphed 3-2 in the second week of the campaign when both sides were finding their feet under new managers, and January brought a 2-0 win for Arsenal.
But with Arsenal changing shape and style so frequently this season under Unai Emery, and Maurizio Sarri’s project gradually being degraded by key injuries, it’s anyone’s guess as to how this showpiece will play out in Baku, Azerbaijan.
That’s what makes this matchup so incredibly exciting.
Chelsea: Injuries Sour Preparations
Chelsea will be missing two, potentially three, key players and one budding star for the final due to injury.
Antonio Rudiger’s knee injury has ended his season early, as have the Achilles tears both Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Callum Hudson-Odoi suffered.
N’Golo Kante’s fitness is also in the balance. He was withdrawn after just 10 minutes in the penultimate Premier League match of the campaign against Watford.
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Rudiger and Loftus-Cheek’s absences open the door for Andreas Christensen and Mateo Kovacic to fill in, while Kante should make it to complete the midfield three—if not, Ross Barkley would get the nod.
There are some genuine 50-50 calls in other areas, namely left-back and right wing. It’s Emerson Palmieri, who started both semi-final legs, against Marcos Alonso, who is generally turned to on bigger occasions; and Pedro against Willian, who have vied all season for the right to play opposite star man Eden Hazard.
Arsenal: The XI Picks Itself
Unai Emery’s starting XI feels quite easy to pick, and that’s equal parts down to it being very settled, and also due to enforced absences.
Henrikh Mkhitaryan won’t travel to Baku for the final due to safety concerns, per BBC Sport—his nation, Armenia, is in political conflict with Azerbaijan—while Hector Bellerin is a long-term absentee with a knee injury and Aaron Ramsey misses out with a hamstring problem.
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That leaves Emery with little option but to field the team that beat Valencia 4-2 at Mestalla—unless he rolls the dice with Matteo Guendouzi’s inexperience in midfield, or with the roller-coaster ride that is Shkodran Mustafi’s defending.
That means Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette will be unleashed as a strike duo, with Mesut Ozil playing just behind them, feeding them ammunition. It’s a combination that should scare any defence in the world.
Previous Encounters
In both previous encounters between these sides this season, Arsenal have played a different formation to the one they’re expected to utilise on Wednesday.
Their first meeting was extremely early in the season, when Emery was still getting to grips with his squad and using a fairly basic 4-2-3-1 shape. Five months later, he was right in the thick of his experimentation phase and produced a 4-4-2 diamond formation for their second game.
But while these matches can’t specifically hint at how the two managers’ shapes will clash, they did outline one clear thing: Expect Chelsea to enjoy the lion’s share of possession and for Arsenal to play a more reactive role.
Chelsea dominated possession in both games (62-38 per cent in the first game, 64-36 per cent in the second), and it appeared both sides were fairly happy with that arrangement.
Sarri’s Chelsea always want to control proceedings on the ball, while Arsenal are at their most comfortable countering into space.
5 Things To Look Out For
1. Jorginho Marked, Chelsea Stopped?
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Certain teams this season have opted to man-mark Jorginho very closely, and doing so has essentially removed him from the game and crippled Chelsea’s ball progression.
Tottenham Hotspur did it using Dele Alli, Poland did it (to Italy) using Piotr Zielinski (a former Napoli team-mate) and, most importantly, Arsenal did it using Ramsey.
The Wales international won’t feature in the final, and the man in his place, Ozil, is hardly your energetic, in-your-face style midfielder.
It will be interesting to see if Emery asks Ozil to try to replicate Ramsey’s workhorse job from the January win, or perhaps even field a surprise selection (Guendouzi?) to carry it out.
Undoubtedly, it’s a tactic that does work, so it’s worth full consideration.
2. Balls In From The Right
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Both previous encounters between these two sides have yielded Arsenal goals from good right-sided work, followed by a low ball into the box.
Admittedly, that was when Bellerin was fit, but Ainsley Maitland-Niles has been a good stand-in at wing-back and even created the same sort of goal against Valencia for Aubameyang at Mestalla.
There’s a combination of factors that have made this such a clear route to success: Emery’s focus on wide overloads, Aubameyang’s superb movement in the box, Alonso’s defensive laxness and Jorginho’s frequent failure to track midfield runners all the way into the box.
Don’t be surprised if Arsenal score from this situation three times running.
3. Aubameyang On The Shoulder
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Aubameyang’s speed and direct running make life difficult for every defence, but given Chelsea will be without Rudiger—their quickest and best one-on-one defender—the Blues will find it even more difficult than usual to keep a lid on the Gabonese hitman.
If Arsenal settle into a deeper block and send direct balls for Aubameyang to chase, his speed becomes a problem, and in turn Lacazette’s movements inside of him do, too (see the first goal scored against Valencia for a prime example of this).
Expect Aubameyang to test both centre-backs for vulnerabilities and move across the line in search of gaps to penetrate. Unless Chelsea’s pressing work is perfect, they won’t be able to completely stop the supply into his path.
4. Emery and Sarri, Polar Opposites
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Emery has an incredible three Europa League titles to his name, all while managing Sevilla, pointing to serious success in this competition in the past. His domestic and league work may not be so boastful, but he is the master on this stage.
Key to these achievements has been his ability to adapt and tinker in-game. Throughout this season he’s played with his formation, often changing shape two or three times per game, as he constantly ferrets for different ways to overcome his opposition.
The final could well be no different. We expect a 3-4-1-2 to be fielded from the start, but the tweaks can flow from around the 15-minute mark.
This is in stark contrast to Sarri, a man who plays the same system and makes the same substitutions at the same time. If Chelsea score the first goal, this tends to be fine; if they fall behind and lose their rhythm, there tends to be no way back.
5. Hazard The Game-Breaker
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Whether or not Arsenal make attempts to neutralise Jorginho, Chelsea’s ability to move the ball through the thirds will be impacted heavily by the loss of Loftus-Cheek. His drive and progressive runs are irreplaceable; the Blues will move more slowly and more predictably as a result.
It places even more of an onus on Hazard to be the game-breaker, the man to conjure the sort of moment that wins a trophy. The Europa League final could be his last game for the club—the Evening Standard reported Real Madrid are edging closer to his valuation—and he’ll want to give the fans a memory to cherish.
Hazard is a big-game player and relishes these sorts of stages. His ability to embark on weaving runs that leave half the opposing team trailing is something no one else set to play in Baku can match.
In the absence of any fluency, you can’t rule out Hazard simply stepping forward and deciding to do it all himself.
Score Prediction: Chelsea 1-2 Arsenal
You can watch the match on TNT and B/R Live. Coverage starts at 2 p.m. ET with kick-off at 3 p.m. ET. BT Sport will broadcast the match in the UK.
All statistics via WhoScored.com.
from Update News Topic http://bit.ly/2YQJG7q
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